Courtenay-Comox · Provincial election · October 24, 2026

93

The number of votes that decided our riding last time,
and why it matters even more this time.

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October 19, 2024

34,718 people in Courtenay-Comox cast a ballot for MLA. Every dot here is one of them.

They didn't all agree. Neighbours never do.

Sorted out: 13,481 Conservative, 13,388 NDP, 7,202 Green, and 647 for independents.

The gap between first and second place was 93 votes. It's that sliver at the top of the blue column. You have to look hard to see it.

That's less than 0.3% of the people who voted.

If 94 of those 7,202 Green voters, about 1 in 77, had marked NDP instead, Courtenay-Comox would have elected a different MLA.

That's no knock on anyone who voted Green. Under first-past-the-post, though, a split vote usually ends up electing the candidate most of us voted against. Official results

October 2026

This time, 93 votes won't be enough.

Every major poll has the Conservatives in front across B.C., and the models that map those polls onto individual ridings have Courtenay-Comox leaning blue.

Province-wide vote intention, latest polls Conservative NDP Green
LégerSep 24–28
13 36 39
MainstreetSep 30–Oct 1
11.2 37.2 44.7
Angus ReidOct 1–3
7 43 48
LiaisonOct 7–8
10 37 43

Decided and leaning voters. BC Ballot tracker Angus Reid Liaison Mainstreet

Courtenay-Comox · Riding forecast · Oct 11, 2026

Chance of winning the riding

Green: under 1%

Projected vote share

Conservative
39%
NDP
36%
Green
23%

Bands show the likely range. From an independent forecast that turns provincial polls into riding-by-riding odds (338Canada).

Courtenay-Comox · A second forecast · Oct 12, 2026

>99%

That's the Conservatives' chance of holding the seat in another forecast model, which has them 8.4 points ahead here. It's gloomier than the first, but both see the same race.

Nearly 1 in 4 voters here are expected to vote Green, and the Green candidate's chance of winning is under 1%.

The Green vote in Courtenay-Comox is big enough to decide this race, and very unlikely to win it.

Try it yourself

A thousand possible Octobers.

Each square below is one way October 24 could turn out, based on an independent forecast for this riding and how uncertain it is. Drag the slider to see what happens when some Green-leaning voters back the candidate who's actually close.

710Conservative wins
290NDP wins

How this works

It starts from the Oct 11 riding projection by 338Canada, a poll aggregator: Conservative 39%, NDP 36%, Green 23%. The Conservative–NDP gap gets random noise sized to match that forecast's own odds (71% Conservative with no change in behaviour), and the Green share varies a little in each run. The slider then moves that share of the Green vote to the NDP and counts who finishes first. It's an illustration of the arithmetic, not a forecast. A second model (Vote-Scope) has the Conservatives further ahead, which would push every number here toward blue.

So who is the other name that can win?

A climate record you can look up.

Will Cole-Hamilton has spent two terms on Courtenay council and three years as chair of the Comox Valley Regional District. Long before he was a candidate for anything provincial, he was organizing local politicians around climate action.

At every level he's worked, he's taken climate with him.

  1. Courtenay

    City council

    Wrote climate into every stage of the city’s long-term plan.

  2. Comox Valley

    Regional district chair

    Led the board that adopted a 70-action climate strategy, from shoreline protection to wildfire kits.

  3. Vancouver Island

    EV charging network

    Helped launch a shared push for chargers by nine towns, four regional districts and the Wei Wai Kum First Nation.

  4. Canada

    Climate Caucus

    Helped build and now chairs a network of 1,000+ local leaders working on climate.

  1. From day one

    Built a national climate network for local leaders

    He was on Climate Caucus’s steering committee from the outset, then served as vice-chair and later chair of the board. The non-partisan network now connects more than 1,000 mayors, councillors and other local elected officials across Canada working on climate policy. He also led its B.C. campaign, Help Cities Lead.

    Source
  2. Courtenay council

    Climate built into every stage of the city’s plan

    He moved that climate change be considered at every stage of Courtenay’s Official Community Plan update, the document that shapes how the city grows for decades.

    Source
  3. Comox Valley Regional District

    Went after landfill methane

    He pushed for an emissions management plan at the regional landfill. Its emissions were estimated at about 15 times all of the regional district’s other corporate emissions combined.

    “Given the scale of the methane emissions from our landfill, this is a really significant step forward.”
    Source
  4. Vancouver Island

    An Island-wide EV charging network

    His resolution passed unanimously. Nine municipalities, four regional districts and the Wei Wai Kum First Nation then applied together for provincial funding to build chargers across the Island.

    Source
  5. Courtenay council

    E-bikes for people who can’t easily afford one

    He co-wrote the resolution with fellow councillors to subsidize e-bikes for low-income residents.

    Source
  6. Comox Valley Regional District

    Deconstruction, not demolition

    He helped move the regional district toward taking old buildings apart for reuse instead of sending them to the landfill.

    Source
  7. National

    Retrofits people can actually afford

    He is described as a founding figure in Canada’s PACE program, which lets homeowners pay for energy retrofits over time through their property taxes.

    Source
  8. Puntledge River

    McPhee Meadows

    He championed plans for a 4.6-hectare green space along the Puntledge River that would protect and restore riparian and wildlife habitat.

    Source
  9. Courtenay council

    UNDRIP as the planning framework

    He moved that Courtenay adopt the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples as the reconciliation framework for its Official Community Plan.

    Source
  10. November 2023

    Elected chair of the regional district

    The board he chairs lists the climate crisis among its five strategic drivers. He also sits on the Regional Parks and Trails Committee and the AVICC Climate Leadership Steering Committee.

    Source
  11. January 2026

    A 70-action regional climate strategy

    Under his chairship, the regional board adopted a Climate Action Strategy developed over two years with staff, environmental groups, community partners and First Nations. It includes coastal resilience work at Dyke Road Park and wildfire kits for residents in high-risk areas.

    “The Climate Action Strategy focuses on practical and structural actions to prepare residents for a changing climate.”
    Source

A note for Green voters

Plenty of Green voters disagree with parts of the NDP’s record. The Green candidate, Jay Van Oostdam, has 25 years in environmental health science and has been sharply critical of the NDP’s forest policy. He’s a serious candidate. His profile

The ballot on October 24 asks something narrower than “which party do I agree with most.” Of the two people who can realistically win here, it asks which one you want carrying the Comox Valley’s voice on climate in Victoria.

The other side of the ballot

Twenty-eight days.

That's how long Courtenay-Comox's MLA, Brennan Day, stayed out of the B.C. Conservative Party before rejoining it for this election.

August 26, 2026

Quits the Conservative caucus

He said he had lost confidence in the leader's “judgment, conduct, and ethical standards,” and told Black Press: We're not Tea Party North. That's not what I was elected to do. He was the fifth Conservative MLA to leave in under two weeks.

Victoria News

September 23, 2026

Rejoins as the election is called

With the leader gone, he returned to the party to run under its banner again. The interim leader, Lorne Doerkson, says the platform hasn't changed much since 2024.

Black Press CBC

What a Conservative seat votes for

From the party's 2026 platform, as compiled by BC Ballot.

  • 3×Natural gas production more than tripled by 2035 (more than doubled by 2032).
  • EndThe emissions limits the party says block investment beyond LNG Canada.
  • 120days: a proposed hard deadline for permitting major projects over $250 million.
  • CutWork with industry to find “CleanBC barriers to investment” and remove “unnecessary regulatory burdens.”
  • RepealDRIPA, B.C.’s law implementing the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.
BC Ballot — Conservative platform by issue

To be fair to him: Day has real roots here. He ran a Courtenay mental-health society and is the Opposition's critic for rural and seniors' health. Background Going through his public statements and news coverage, though, I couldn't find a position from him on climate policy. If I missed one, let me know and I'll add it.

What it comes down to

Last time, it would have taken 94.

That's 94 people out of more than 34,000, fewer than you'd pass on a Saturday at the Courtenay Farmers' Market. This time the gap is likely to be wider, which means it'll take more of us.

Advance voting

Oct 16–21

Six days to vote early. Locations and hours are at Elections BC.

Election day

Sat, Oct 24

Check your voter card or Elections BC for where to go.

Where & how

elections.bc.ca ↗

Find your voting place, ID rules and mail-in options.